Saturday, September 16, 2006

Low risk, high yield. Read on.

Market: Cubs 2006 Win Total
Stock: at least 60 games; at least 65 games
Risk: none at all

Buy equal shares of both stocks. As of 9/16/06, that would cost you about 80 Inkles. Look at the market page and look at the other stocks. Now look at the Cubs' record. You'll see that they have 59 wins and 89 losses. Since there are 162 games in a season, this means that the Cubs have 14 games left. If they lose all 14 games, then you're out of luck. But if they win just one more game, you're guarunteed decent profit. Once they win one more game, the Cubs can only have more than 60, or more than 65 wins. No more, no less. Either the Cubs lose 14 games straight (which would be ridiculous) or you make at a minimum 25% rate of return. I like.

UPDATE: The Cubs just won their 60th game. Now my little caveat about some risk is meaningless. Go ahead, by some.


At 9/22/2006 6:00 AM, Blogger Michael said...

Today's prices in the Cub 2006 Win Total market just don't make sense:

At least 70 games $10.46 At least 60 games $40.30
At least 65 games $49.23

First, as you noted, the Cubs have already won more than 60 games, so the "At least 60 games" price of $40.30 is free money to whoever gets there first. (Sadly, I have no inklings to spend - everything is tied up elsewhere.)

But how on earth do we have "At least 65 games" trading at a higher price than "At least 60 games"? Obviously, the Cubs must win at least 60 before they have any chance at winning 65.

I guess it is thinly traded stocks like this one that allow the "All time greats" to scrape up the easy inklings.


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